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The Reality Check


Jan 24, 2011

Darren calculates the odds of having 4 boys (and more). Adam talks about the recent news story about cloning a mammoth and why current objections are silly. Jon explores the myth the beautiful people are dumb, or is it that they're smart?


Esben Agerbo
almost ten years ago

Beckham’s decision to have a 4th child depends on the gender composition of his previous born children. The probability of having a third child is lowest if he already got both a girl and a boy, higher if he has two girls and highest if two boys. This pattern is similarly for those with 3 kids. From this we can conclude 1) girls are preferred and 2) it is not him but his wife who is in charge, as this pattern appears to be independent of whether the wife gets a new Beckham. Keep it up!